Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 11.396244 13.082358 14.906319 17.022757 19.407614 22.008331 25.055692
2025-02-16 8.944961 11.226304 13.893246 17.227767 21.270887 25.999103 31.930867
2025-02-23 7.566244 10.062322 13.129915 17.152103 22.258872 28.495707 36.655032
2025-03-02 6.653289 9.314050 12.731233 17.401564 23.572082 31.393411 41.996838
2025-03-09 5.877606 8.610122 12.258058 17.427558 24.497085 33.748666 46.678355
2025-03-16 5.181345 7.918160 11.705533 17.254642 25.086319 35.636929 50.792652
2025-03-23 4.706415 7.475001 11.433283 17.409735 26.085944 38.079873 55.732816
2025-03-30 4.417863 7.267235 11.463179 17.972377 27.663910 41.373066 61.990188
2025-04-06 3.980856 6.784027 11.036195 17.813352 28.160248 43.132638 66.131887
2025-04-13 3.428143 6.059691 10.175342 16.919064 27.481431 43.121420 67.665461
2025-04-20 3.230713 5.889868 10.156988 17.312835 28.761783 46.041016 73.640499
2025-04-27 3.027468 5.688541 10.067017 17.576449 29.840420 48.692109 79.316560
2025-05-04 2.753937 5.345417 9.725362 17.419505 30.262096 50.389441 83.673585
2025-05-11 2.494119 5.000809 9.352143 17.179637 30.528631 51.851289 87.731467
2025-05-18 2.314323 4.782497 9.174331 17.249505 31.295242 54.124252 93.153446
2025-05-25 2.172200 4.620162 9.079913 17.451910 32.287647 56.798139 99.329884
2025-06-01 2.020217 4.423018 8.904835 17.493806 32.997541 59.028504 104.864786
2025-06-08 1.853128 4.178644 8.621368 17.315156 33.302583 60.584173 109.331556
2025-06-15 1.744041 4.040880 8.526202 17.472438 34.204735 63.179948 115.643759
2025-06-22 1.691502 4.015840 8.644925 18.036339 35.867218 67.149219 124.456360
2025-06-29 1.561574 3.812186 8.395982 17.876987 36.186753 68.783933 129.291852
2025-07-06 1.367225 3.446571 7.791754 16.979743 35.070158 67.817039 129.513816
2025-07-13 1.317002 3.400311 7.837621 17.374810 36.422296 71.325459 137.805206